Monti Becomes Italy's New PM:
This headline has been across various websites in one form or another. What strikes me is not that Italy has a new Prime Minister, but how it happened? Silvio Berlusconi resigned as Prime Minister last week and, rather than holding elections, Monti was simply given power. This is the exact same story (with different names) that happened in Greece a few weeks ago. Current Prime Minister runs into disfavor with European leadership. Current PM resigns and recommends successor from industry (European Central Bank for the new Greece PM and European Union ministry for new Italian PM).
There are two things about these transitions that strike me as odd:
1. No elections were held. The new PM simply took over in both cases. While I am no expert in European parliamentary democracy, I find it rather curious that the leadership of the country could pass from one PM to another with no vote so quickly. It almost reminds me more of the type of situation that you would see in a corporation instead of in a country. The corporation is failing and its balance sheet is a mess, so the Board of Directors (France and Germany) fire the CEO and his LT and appoint a new leadership team.
2. Both of the new PM's came from the European Community instead of from the government of Italy or Greece. This just reinforces my theory from #1 that both leaders really brought in by the EU. If this is the case, it will be interesting to see what happens in these two countries in the next few months or years. Running a country with the best interests of the EU in mind is very different than running a country with the best interests of its citizens in mind. I'm very interested to see if/when this starts to become a problem and how it impacts European nationalism, which has long been stifled.
Greek PM Wins Vote of Confidence:
Another headline that has been everywhere and has been taken to mean that the Greek people are backing new PM Papademos's agenda of adopting the strict austerity measures required by the EU.
My take: I think that Greece will continue to do what it has been doing since it joined the EU. Its leaders will continue to make loud noises about adopting the measures required by the EU (as evidence by the 255 to 38 vote) while the citizens continue to riot and fight to maintain the status quo. The only difference is that this time Greece can longer afford to say one thing and do another. In order to avoid a default and possibly being kicked out of the EU, Greece needs its citizens to change its ways.
Speaking frankly, I don't see this happening. The Greek citizens are being asked to make sacrifices for the betterment of Europeans from other countries and at the behest of leaders who were brought to power by the EU leadership from those countries. Instead, I see a power struggle between the citizens and the government. In that type of situation, the public always wins (just wikipedia the following "The <insert country here> Revolution" for proof).
Italy to Adopt Austerity Measures:
Ok, so maybe this one wasn't a headline everywhere. It was, however, a key point in many of the articles about the new PM Monti and his agenda.
My interest in this falls on one very specific part of Italy: South Tyrol. (see below picture from the South Tyrol wikipedia page)
My interest in this region is for one specific reason: it isn't Italian. For those of you who aren't familiar with Tyrol, its German. 75% German (as of the 2010 census) to be exact. It was annexed by Italy after WW1 as a part of the deal that Italy made for switching sides to fight Germany during the war. This annexation took place to push the Italian-Austrian border further into the Alps so that it was easier for Italy to defend. Prior to that, it was a part of the Austrian Empire for hundreds years.
Delving deeper into South Tyrol (again using only the wikipedia page), you can find that the Germans living their have cut themselves a pretty sweet deal as a result of this annexation. South Tyrol is able to maintain 90% of all levied taxes as compensation for living in a country that they have no ethnic tie to.
This is the part of South Tyrol that really interests me. Will South Tyrol be included in the Italian austerity measures (increasing government revenue is a way to address the debt issue after all)? If that happens, how will the Germans living in South Tyrol respond? Will they all of the sudden remember that until 1972 they had claimed to be Austrian (or that until 1992 Austria had claimed them)? Will they look at the financial policies in Germany and Austria (both much more similar to South Tyrol in terms to per Capita GDP that most of Italy is) and find something that appeals to them?
If the answer to any of the above questions is "Yes", then we could see some very interesting times as Italy implements its austerity programs. My prediction: South Tyrol becomes a major flash point for nationalism in the near future and causes major issues for the EU.
